The odds · Whipsaw

ETFs that whipsaw least across their 200-day moving average, ranked over the last ten years

QQQ (3.5 crosses a year), XLK (4.1 crosses a year) and QLD (4.5 crosses a year) lead the 90 funds with ten years of history.

Nov 7, 2016 to Nov 6, 2026, the same ten years for every fund. The raw 200-day rule on closing prices; a cross is the close that changes the side. A pair within 14 days is a cross undone within two weeks.

The top ten

#	Fund	Name	Crosses a year	Within 14 days of the last	Confirmed on 3 closes, a year
1	QQQ	Invesco QQQ Trust	3.5	62%	1.0
2	XLK	State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF	4.1	63%	1.6
3	QLD	ProShares Ultra QQQ	4.5	64%	1.5
4	TQQQ	ProShares UltraPro QQQ	4.7	61%	1.7
5	IGV	iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF	4.8	62%	2.4
6	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	5.1	66%	1.7
7	TECL	Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares	5.3	65%	2.7
8	CIBR	First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF	5.6	65%	3.2
9	SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	5.7	66%	2.3
10	SPY	State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	5.8	67%	2.2

All 90 funds with ten years of history

#	Fund	Name	Crosses a year	Crosses in ten years	Within 14 days of the last	Confirmed on 3 closes, a year
1	QQQ	Invesco QQQ Trust	3.5	35	62%	1.0
2	XLK	State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF	4.1	41	63%	1.6
3	QLD	ProShares Ultra QQQ	4.5	45	64%	1.5
4	TQQQ	ProShares UltraPro QQQ	4.7	47	61%	1.7
5	IGV	iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF	4.8	48	62%	2.4
6	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	5.1	51	66%	1.7
7	TECL	Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares	5.3	53	65%	2.7
8	CIBR	First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF	5.6	56	65%	3.2
9	SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	5.7	57	66%	2.3
10	SPY	State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	5.8	58	67%	2.2
11	VTI	Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF	5.8	58	65%	1.8
12	SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	6.1	61	67%	2.7
13	ACWI	iShares MSCI ACWI ETF	6.5	65	69%	2.6
14	GBTC	Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF	6.6	66	69%	2.6
15	UPRO	ProShares UltraPro S&P500	6.6	66	68%	2.4
16	SSO	ProShares Ultra S&P500	6.7	67	68%	2.8
17	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	6.8	68	66%	3.2
18	VXUS	Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares	6.9	69	60%	3.9
19	ITA	iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF	7.3	73	69%	2.3
20	XLI	State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF	7.3	73	61%	2.7
21	XLY	State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF	7.3	73	67%	3.3
22	DIA	State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust	7.4	74	70%	3.6
23	LABU	Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares	7.5	75	64%	3.1
24	VIG	Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares	7.5	75	74%	3.0
25	NUGT	Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares	7.6	76	60%	4.0
26	SPXL	Direxion Daily S&P500 Bull 3X Shares	7.6	76	69%	2.6
27	EWY	iShares MSCI South Korea ETF	7.7	77	64%	2.7
28	IWM	iShares Russell 2000 ETF	7.7	77	62%	3.2
29	SHY	iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF	7.7	77	72%	2.2
30	DBA	Invesco DB Agriculture Fund	7.8	78	66%	3.2
31	FAS	Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares	7.8	78	66%	3.2
32	INDA	iShares MSCI India ETF	7.8	78	53%	4.0
33	XLF	State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF	7.8	78	66%	3.0
34	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	7.9	79	64%	4.1
35	HYG	iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF	7.9	79	69%	3.1
36	TMF	Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares	8.0	80	71%	2.6
37	GLD	SPDR Gold Shares	8.1	81	65%	3.3
38	ITB	iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF	8.1	81	73%	2.5
39	RSP	Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF	8.2	82	69%	2.8
40	UNG	United States Natural Gas Fund, LP	8.2	82	65%	3.6
41	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares	8.2	82	68%	3.8
42	XYLD	Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF	8.2	82	62%	3.2
43	XBI	State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF	8.3	83	70%	2.7
44	EWG	iShares MSCI Germany ETF	8.4	84	61%	3.7
45	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF	8.4	84	69%	2.8
46	XOP	State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF	8.4	84	67%	4.0
47	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	8.5	85	65%	3.5
48	EWT	iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF	8.5	85	65%	4.4
49	JNK	State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF	8.5	85	70%	2.9
50	CPER	United States Copper Index Fund, LP	8.7	87	66%	3.6
51	EWU	iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF	8.7	87	69%	3.9
52	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	8.7	87	70%	3.5
53	NOBL	ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF	8.7	87	62%	3.5
54	KRE	State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF	8.8	88	68%	3.8
55	USMV	iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF	8.9	89	67%	3.9
56	XRT	State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF	8.9	89	66%	3.3
57	MTUM	iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF	9.0	90	75%	2.9
58	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	9.1	91	70%	3.1
59	SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	9.1	91	73%	3.3
60	MDY	State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust	9.5	95	69%	3.4
61	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	9.6	96	72%	3.6
62	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF	9.7	97	67%	3.5
63	XLU	State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF	9.8	98	72%	3.2
64	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	9.9	99	79%	3.4
65	SLV	iShares Silver Trust	9.9	99	64%	5.3
66	TNA	Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares	9.9	99	70%	4.1
67	VLUE	iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF	10.0	100	71%	4.0
68	VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares	10.1	101	70%	4.3
69	DBC	Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund	10.2	102	70%	4.6
70	SCHD	Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF	10.2	102	71%	3.6
71	VTV	Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF	10.2	102	71%	3.8
72	UDOW	ProShares UltraPro Dow30	10.3	103	71%	3.2
73	USO	United States Oil Fund, LP	10.3	103	71%	5.5
74	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	10.4	104	72%	4.6
75	TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	10.4	104	71%	4.0
76	XLB	State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF	10.6	106	66%	4.8
77	BIZD	VanEck BDC Income ETF	10.7	107	71%	4.1
78	ARKK	ARK Innovation ETF	10.8	108	67%	5.5
79	BND	Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares	10.8	108	78%	4.4
80	GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	10.9	109	69%	4.5
81	AGG	iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF	11.5	115	77%	4.2
82	QYLD	Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF	11.6	116	70%	5.8
83	ERX	Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares	11.8	118	69%	5.4
84	XLE	State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF	11.8	118	71%	4.6
85	XLV	State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF	11.9	119	70%	4.7
86	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond ETF	12.3	123	73%	4.9
87	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares	12.3	123	70%	5.5
88	XLP	State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF	12.3	123	74%	4.9
89	XLRE	State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF	12.9	129	73%	4.5
90	EWZ	iShares MSCI Brazil ETF	13.7	137	77%	5.1

Nov 7, 2016 to Nov 6, 2026. The raw 200-day rule on closing prices; a cross is the close that changes the side. A pair within 14 days is a cross undone within two weeks. A muted figure rests on fewer than 30 independent windows. Yahoo Finance daily closes; the method page has every definition.

Not yet ten years: 10 funds listed, not ranked

Fund	Name	Listed	Years of history
XLC	State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF	Jun 19, 2018	8.4
JEPI	JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF	May 21, 2020	6.5
JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	May 4, 2022	4.5
DIVO	Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income ETF	Dec 15, 2016	9.9
SPYI	Neos S&P 500(R) High Income ETF	Aug 30, 2022	4.2
QQQI	NEOS NASDAQ-100(R) High Income ETF	Jan 30, 2024	2.8
GPIX	Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Premium Income ETF	Oct 27, 2023	3.0
IBIT	iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF	Jan 11, 2024	2.8
FBTC	Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund	Jan 11, 2024	2.8
ETHA	iShares Ethereum Trust ETF	Jul 23, 2024	2.3

Each fund's own page carries the same statistics over its own span.

Questions

Why the last ten years?

Because a ranking has to compare the same dates: SPY has traded since 1993 and the youngest funds since 2025, so a figure over each fund's whole life would compare nothing. Ten years holds two large falls (2020, 2022) and leaves 10 funds too young to rank, listed below the table with their own span.

What was measured?

The raw 200-day rule on closing prices; a cross is the close that changes the side. A pair within 14 days is a cross undone within two weeks.

When does this page update?

After every US market close, once the day's official close is final; the dateline at the top names the last close it reflects.

Data through the November 6, 2026 close. Rankings of the past, not advice. The other lists: Best-performing · Fell least · Fell most · Higher a year later · Whipsaw most · 200-day mattered most · 200-day rule · 100-day rule · 50-day rule.