The odds · The line

ETFs where the 200-day moving average mattered most: the odds above the line against the odds below, over the last ten years

SHY (a gap of +22 points), JNK (a gap of +22 points) and GBTC (a gap of +20 points) lead the 90 funds with ten years of history.

Nov 7, 2016 to Nov 6, 2026, the same ten years for every fund. Every session in the window as a start, held 63 sessions on dividend-adjusted closes, split by the raw 200-day side at the start (the unadjusted close, as the rule reads it). Three months rather than a year because ten years hold few independent years below the line. The ranges are 95% intervals on the independent windows; where they overlap, the gap could be chance.

The top ten

#	Fund	Name	Higher 3 months later, from above	From below	Gap, points	Sessions below the line
1	SHY	iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF	83%	61%	+22	1,453
2	JNK	State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF	86%	64%	+22	1,132
3	GBTC	Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF	65%	44%	+20	929
4	HYG	iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF	85%	65%	+20	1,052
5	QQQ	Invesco QQQ Trust	79%	62%	+17	415
6	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	73%	57%	+15	742
7	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares	75%	60%	+15	743
8	VXUS	Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares	74%	59%	+15	754
9	VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares	69%	55%	+14	874
10	EWY	iShares MSCI South Korea ETF	63%	49%	+14	1,059

All 90 funds with ten years of history

#	Fund	Name	Higher 3 months later, from above	From below	Gap, points	Range from above	Range from below	Sessions below the line
1	SHY	iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF	83%	61%	+22	59 to 95	40 to 78	1,453
2	JNK	State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF	86%	64%	+22	66 to 95	40 to 83	1,132
3	GBTC	Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF	65%	44%	+20	45 to 81	22 to 69	929
4	HYG	iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF	85%	65%	+20	66 to 94	40 to 84	1,052
5	QQQ	Invesco QQQ Trust	79%	62%	+17	62 to 89	26 to 88	415
6	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	73%	57%	+15	54 to 86	30 to 81	742
7	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares	75%	60%	+15	57 to 88	33 to 83	743
8	VXUS	Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares	74%	59%	+15	55 to 87	32 to 82	754
9	VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares	69%	55%	+14	49 to 83	30 to 77	874
10	EWY	iShares MSCI South Korea ETF	63%	49%	+14	42 to 80	27 to 71	1,059
11	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF	67%	53%	+14	47 to 82	29 to 76	908
12	QLD	ProShares Ultra QQQ	75%	62%	+14	58 to 87	28 to 87	481
13	ACWI	iShares MSCI ACWI ETF	79%	66%	+13	62 to 90	32 to 89	491
14	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	74%	61%	+13	55 to 87	34 to 83	730
15	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	80%	68%	+12	63 to 91	33 to 90	452
16	SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	67%	54%	+12	47 to 82	29 to 78	808
17	DBA	Invesco DB Agriculture Fund	66%	54%	+11	43 to 83	33 to 74	1,238
18	SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	74%	63%	+11	56 to 86	29 to 87	502
19	VTI	Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF	80%	68%	+11	62 to 90	34 to 90	460
20	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond ETF	71%	60%	+11	49 to 86	37 to 79	1,204
21	LABU	Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares	53%	43%	+11	32 to 74	24 to 64	1,270
22	ITB	iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF	66%	56%	+10	47 to 81	30 to 79	856
23	EWG	iShares MSCI Germany ETF	65%	55%	+10	45 to 80	29 to 78	831
24	SPY	State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	80%	70%	+9	63 to 90	33 to 92	438
25	IGV	iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF	73%	64%	+9	55 to 86	32 to 87	551
26	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	55%	46%	+9	34 to 74	26 to 68	1,229
27	SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	75%	66%	+9	57 to 86	29 to 90	423
28	XLK	State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF	77%	69%	+8	60 to 88	32 to 91	401
29	TQQQ	ProShares UltraPro QQQ	72%	64%	+8	54 to 85	32 to 87	553
30	SSO	ProShares Ultra S&P500	77%	70%	+7	59 to 88	36 to 90	514
31	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	68%	61%	+7	47 to 84	38 to 80	1,150
32	XBI	State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF	60%	55%	+5	40 to 77	30 to 77	920
33	UPRO	ProShares UltraPro S&P500	75%	70%	+5	57 to 87	38 to 90	609
34	XLY	State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF	72%	67%	+5	54 to 85	34 to 89	600
35	AGG	iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF	63%	58%	+5	40 to 81	37 to 77	1,372
36	SPXL	Direxion Daily S&P500 Bull 3X Shares	75%	70%	+5	57 to 87	38 to 90	612
37	BND	Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares	63%	59%	+5	40 to 81	37 to 77	1,367
38	EWT	iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF	73%	69%	+4	54 to 86	41 to 87	765
39	TECL	Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares	71%	67%	+4	52 to 84	35 to 88	573
40	MTUM	iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF	74%	70%	+3	56 to 86	37 to 91	526
41	CIBR	First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF	71%	69%	+3	54 to 84	34 to 90	502
42	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	64%	61%	+3	42 to 82	40 to 79	1,368
43	TMF	Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares	44%	41%	+3	22 to 69	24 to 60	1,686
44	UNG	United States Natural Gas Fund, LP	38%	36%	+2	15 to 68	21 to 54	1,904
45	DBC	Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund	62%	60%	+2	41 to 79	37 to 79	1,089
46	BIZD	VanEck BDC Income ETF	65%	64%	+2	43 to 83	42 to 81	1,309
47	VIG	Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares	78%	77%	+1	61 to 89	38 to 95	395
48	XOP	State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF	53%	52%	+1	32 to 72	31 to 73	1,161
49	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	53%	53%	0	31 to 75	33 to 72	1,486
50	QYLD	Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF	77%	78%	0	57 to 90	52 to 92	998
51	XLU	State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF	69%	70%	−1	50 to 83	42 to 88	822
52	DIA	State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust	74%	76%	−1	57 to 87	39 to 94	441
53	EWU	iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF	67%	68%	−2	47 to 82	41 to 87	815
54	TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	48%	51%	−3	25 to 71	32 to 70	1,572
55	USMV	iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF	78%	81%	−4	61 to 89	42 to 96	435
56	NUGT	Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares	49%	53%	−4	27 to 72	34 to 71	1,527
57	XYLD	Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF	76%	80%	−4	56 to 89	55 to 93	1,002
58	VLUE	iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF	68%	72%	−4	50 to 83	43 to 90	737
59	XLE	State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF	54%	59%	−5	34 to 73	36 to 79	1,043
60	IWM	iShares Russell 2000 ETF	62%	67%	−5	43 to 78	39 to 86	782
61	TNA	Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares	55%	60%	−5	35 to 73	36 to 79	1,054
62	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF	64%	69%	−5	44 to 79	41 to 87	818
63	ARKK	ARK Innovation ETF	60%	65%	−5	40 to 77	40 to 84	888
64	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	56%	61%	−5	35 to 75	39 to 79	1,260
65	GLD	SPDR Gold Shares	65%	70%	−5	46 to 80	41 to 89	757
66	RSP	Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF	72%	78%	−5	55 to 85	41 to 95	493
67	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	70%	76%	−6	52 to 84	45 to 92	655
68	ERX	Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares	48%	54%	−6	28 to 69	32 to 74	1,196
69	XLI	State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF	69%	76%	−6	52 to 83	39 to 94	532
70	ITA	iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF	72%	80%	−8	54 to 84	43 to 95	536
71	XRT	State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF	53%	61%	−8	34 to 72	38 to 81	1,066
72	XLB	State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF	63%	71%	−8	44 to 78	42 to 89	729
73	UDOW	ProShares UltraPro Dow30	65%	73%	−8	47 to 80	43 to 91	653
74	SLV	iShares Silver Trust	52%	60%	−8	32 to 71	37 to 80	1,103
75	FAS	Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares	63%	72%	−9	44 to 79	45 to 89	841
76	INDA	iShares MSCI India ETF	57%	67%	−10	38 to 75	42 to 85	1,062
77	CPER	United States Copper Index Fund, LP	55%	66%	−10	37 to 73	39 to 85	865
78	USO	United States Oil Fund, LP	53%	63%	−10	33 to 72	40 to 82	1,071
79	NOBL	ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF	68%	79%	−10	50 to 82	44 to 94	523
80	GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	54%	65%	−10	34 to 73	41 to 83	1,128
81	MDY	State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust	66%	76%	−10	48 to 80	44 to 93	621
82	KRE	State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF	55%	65%	−11	35 to 73	40 to 84	969
83	VTV	Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF	74%	86%	−12	57 to 86	49 to 98	490
84	SCHD	Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF	70%	83%	−13	52 to 84	50 to 96	613
85	XLF	State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF	66%	79%	−13	47 to 81	49 to 93	733
86	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares	56%	70%	−14	35 to 74	46 to 86	1,137
87	XLRE	State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF	58%	73%	−16	38 to 76	48 to 89	1,039
88	EWZ	iShares MSCI Brazil ETF	51%	69%	−18	31 to 70	44 to 86	1,078
89	XLV	State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF	64%	82%	−18	45 to 79	51 to 95	682
90	XLP	State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF	62%	82%	−20	43 to 78	53 to 95	796

Nov 7, 2016 to Nov 6, 2026. Every session in the window as a start, held 63 sessions on dividend-adjusted closes, split by the raw 200-day side at the start (the unadjusted close, as the rule reads it). Three months rather than a year because ten years hold few independent years below the line. The ranges are 95% intervals on the independent windows; where they overlap, the gap could be chance. A muted figure rests on fewer than 30 independent windows. Yahoo Finance daily closes; the method page has every definition.

Not yet ten years: 10 funds listed, not ranked

Fund	Name	Listed	Years of history
XLC	State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF	Jun 19, 2018	8.4
JEPI	JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF	May 21, 2020	6.5
JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	May 4, 2022	4.5
DIVO	Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income ETF	Dec 15, 2016	9.9
SPYI	Neos S&P 500(R) High Income ETF	Aug 30, 2022	4.2
QQQI	NEOS NASDAQ-100(R) High Income ETF	Jan 30, 2024	2.8
GPIX	Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Premium Income ETF	Oct 27, 2023	3.0
IBIT	iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF	Jan 11, 2024	2.8
FBTC	Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund	Jan 11, 2024	2.8
ETHA	iShares Ethereum Trust ETF	Jul 23, 2024	2.3

Each fund's own page carries the same statistics over its own span.

Questions

Why the last ten years?

Because a ranking has to compare the same dates: SPY has traded since 1993 and the youngest funds since 2025, so a figure over each fund's whole life would compare nothing. Ten years holds two large falls (2020, 2022) and leaves 10 funds too young to rank, listed below the table with their own span.

What was measured?

Every session in the window as a start, held 63 sessions on dividend-adjusted closes, split by the raw 200-day side at the start (the unadjusted close, as the rule reads it). Three months rather than a year because ten years hold few independent years below the line. The ranges are 95% intervals on the independent windows; where they overlap, the gap could be chance.

When does this page update?

After every US market close, once the day's official close is final; the dateline at the top names the last close it reflects.

Data through the November 6, 2026 close. Rankings of the past, not advice. The other lists: Best-performing · Fell least · Fell most · Higher a year later · Whipsaw least · Whipsaw most · 200-day rule · 100-day rule · 50-day rule.