The odds
100 ETFs ranked ten ways, over the same ten years
Every list below runs on one window, Nov 7, 2016 to Nov 6, 2026, so the funds are compared over the same dates. 90 of the 100 had a 200-day reading when the window opened and are ranked; the other 10 are listed under each ranking with their own span. Every rate carries its sample size, and the fine print under each table says what was measured.
The best-performing ETFs of the last ten years, all 100 ranked
First: GBTC (50.9% a year), TECL (40.9% a year) and TQQQ (36.2% a year). All 90 ranked.
The safest ETFs of the last ten years: the ones that fell least from their highs
First: SHY (a worst fall of −6%), TIP (a worst fall of −15%) and AGG (a worst fall of −18%). All 90 ranked.
The most volatile ETFs of the last ten years: the ones that fell most from their highs
First: LABU (a worst fall of −99%), ERX (a worst fall of −99%) and UNG (a worst fall of −94%). All 90 ranked.
ETFs most likely to be higher a year later, ranked over the last ten years
First: XLK (higher a year later 88% of the time), VIG (higher a year later 88% of the time) and QQQ (higher a year later 87% of the time). All 90 ranked.
ETFs that whipsaw least across their 200-day moving average, ranked over the last ten years
First: QQQ (3.5 crosses a year), XLK (4.1 crosses a year) and QLD (4.5 crosses a year). All 90 ranked.
ETFs that whipsaw most across their 200-day moving average, ranked over the last ten years
First: EWZ (13.7 crosses a year), XLRE (12.9 crosses a year) and TIP (12.3 crosses a year). All 90 ranked.
ETFs where the 200-day moving average mattered most: the odds above the line against the odds below, over the last ten years
First: SHY (a gap of +22 points), JNK (a gap of +22 points) and GBTC (a gap of +20 points). All 90 ranked.
The 200-day moving average rule on 100 ETFs: what it made, ranked over the last ten years
Over these ten years the rule beat holding on 10 of 90 funds, cut the worst fall on 83, and beat its own exposure control on 20. First: GBTC (52.9% a year on the rule, 50.9% held), TQQQ (36.4% a year on the rule, 36.2% held) and TECL (31.7% a year on the rule, 40.9% held). All 90 ranked.
The 100-day moving average rule on 100 ETFs: what it made, ranked over the last ten years
Over these ten years the rule beat holding on 7 of 90 funds, cut the worst fall on 85, and beat its own exposure control on 17. First: GBTC (74.8% a year on the rule, 50.9% held), SOXL (24.9% a year on the rule, 32.3% held) and TECL (17.2% a year on the rule, 40.9% held). All 90 ranked.
The 50-day moving average rule on 100 ETFs: what it made, ranked over the last ten years
Over these ten years the rule beat holding on 8 of 90 funds, cut the worst fall on 88, and beat its own exposure control on 21. First: GBTC (59.3% a year on the rule, 50.9% held), TECL (33.4% a year on the rule, 40.9% held) and TQQQ (31.1% a year on the rule, 36.2% held). All 90 ranked.
Data through the November 6, 2026 close, recomputed after every close. Yahoo Finance daily closes; the method page has every definition. Rankings of the past, not advice.