Moving Average Alerts

Data through Friday, November 6, 2026 close. Unadjusted closes.

The odds · Odds

ETFs most likely to be higher a year later, ranked over the last ten years

XLK (higher a year later 88% of the time), VIG (higher a year later 88% of the time) and QQQ (higher a year later 87% of the time) lead the 90 funds with ten years of history.

Nov 7, 2016 to Nov 6, 2026, the same ten years for every fund. Every session in the window as a start, held 252 sessions, dividend-adjusted closes. Windows overlap, so the range is a 95% interval on the nine independent years the window holds; every figure in this table is muted for that reason and the ranking is coarse.

The top ten

#FundNameHigher a year later95% rangeMedian yearWorst year
1 XLK State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF 88%56 to 98+28.4−30.2
2 VIG Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares 88%55 to 98+13.7−15.9
3 QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust 87%55 to 97+25.2−34.8
4 USMV iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF 87%55 to 97+10.4−18.3
5 SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 86%53 to 97+16.6−19.7
6 QUAL iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF 85%53 to 97+15.7−23.3
7 DIA State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust 85%53 to 97+12.6−25.3
8 VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF 85%52 to 97+16.4−21.4
9 XLV State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF 85%52 to 97+11.2−15.7
10 VTV Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF 85%52 to 97+11.1−26.5

All 90 funds with ten years of history

#FundNameHigher a year later95% rangeMedian yearWorst yearHigher a month laterHigher a day later
1 XLK State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF 88%56 to 98+28.4−30.268%56%
2 VIG Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares 88%55 to 98+13.7−15.969%55%
3 QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust 87%55 to 97+25.2−34.868%57%
4 USMV iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF 87%55 to 97+10.4−18.370%55%
5 SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 86%53 to 97+16.6−19.770%55%
6 QUAL iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF 85%53 to 97+15.7−23.369%54%
7 DIA State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust 85%53 to 97+12.6−25.368%55%
8 VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF 85%52 to 97+16.4−21.469%55%
9 XLV State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF 85%52 to 97+11.2−15.761%53%
10 VTV Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF 85%52 to 97+11.1−26.567%54%
11 CIBR First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF 84%52 to 96+19.3−32.161%55%
12 SCHD Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 84%52 to 96+11.1−21.566%54%
13 NOBL ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF 84%51 to 96+9.4−24.164%54%
14 XLP State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF 84%51 to 96+7.4−11.662%52%
15 XLY State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF 83%51 to 96+16.1−38.063%55%
16 QLD ProShares Ultra QQQ 83%51 to 96+43.0−63.166%56%
17 QYLD Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF 83%50 to 96+10.1−22.373%58%
18 SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF 83%50 to 96+40.2−36.365%55%
19 MTUM iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF 82%50 to 96+20.8−27.066%56%
20 HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF 82%50 to 96+5.9−15.966%53%
21 RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF 82%50 to 96+11.4−28.667%55%
22 SSO ProShares Ultra S&P500 82%49 to 96+25.0−41.368%55%
23 XLI State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF 82%49 to 95+14.2−31.662%54%
24 ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF 81%49 to 95+15.1−23.068%55%
25 ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF 81%48 to 95+15.1−38.761%54%
26 JNK State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF 81%48 to 95+6.2−16.665%53%
27 SOXX iShares Semiconductor ETF 80%47 to 95+34.2−37.863%55%
28 TQQQ ProShares UltraPro QQQ 79%46 to 94+57.0−81.065%56%
29 XLU State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF 78%46 to 94+10.7−20.661%54%
30 TECL Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares 78%45 to 94+58.4−76.865%56%
31 DVY iShares Select Dividend ETF 77%45 to 94+9.3−33.765%53%
32 SPXL Direxion Daily S&P500 Bull 3X Shares 77%45 to 93+31.5−60.867%55%
33 UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P500 77%45 to 93+31.3−60.867%55%
34 EWT iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF 77%44 to 93+18.5−32.962%54%
35 XYLD Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF 76%44 to 93+8.7−22.475%58%
36 IGV iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF 76%44 to 93+23.5−45.664%55%
37 GLD SPDR Gold Shares 76%43 to 93+12.4−15.257%54%
38 TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF 75%43 to 92+3.7−14.060%52%
39 MDY State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust 75%42 to 92+9.5−33.562%53%
40 ARKK ARK Innovation ETF 74%41 to 92+20.8−72.860%53%
41 SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF 74%41 to 92+2.7−5.464%48%
42 PFF iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF 73%41 to 91+3.5−27.361%53%
43 VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 73%41 to 91+11.0−28.065%54%
44 EFA iShares MSCI EAFE ETF 73%41 to 91+11.1−27.964%54%
45 EWJ iShares MSCI Japan ETF 72%40 to 91+11.1−31.263%53%
46 VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 72%40 to 91+10.7−27.264%54%
47 EMB iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF 71%39 to 90+5.3−26.462%52%
48 UDOW ProShares UltraPro Dow30 71%39 to 90+20.5−70.565%54%
49 VLUE iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF 71%39 to 90+10.8−28.663%53%
50 XLB State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF 71%39 to 90+10.1−27.860%53%
51 XLF State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF 71%39 to 90+9.7−28.661%53%
52 EWG iShares MSCI Germany ETF 70%39 to 90+9.9−40.458%53%
53 LQD iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF 70%39 to 90+3.6−23.159%52%
54 EWU iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF 70%38 to 90+11.0−37.762%53%
55 VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 69%38 to 89+10.0−29.559%53%
56 SOXL Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares 69%37 to 89+57.6−87.359%54%
57 IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF 68%37 to 89+9.3−34.660%53%
58 XLRE State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF 68%36 to 89+5.8−26.560%53%
59 GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF 68%36 to 88+14.0−29.753%50%
60 IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF 67%36 to 88+7.1−35.660%52%
61 XRT State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF 67%36 to 88+7.1−40.755%51%
62 EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF 67%35 to 88+8.9−33.358%53%
63 ITB iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF 66%35 to 87+14.6−34.160%52%
64 XLE State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF 66%35 to 87+9.3−61.757%53%
65 CPER United States Copper Index Fund, LP 65%34 to 87+9.4−30.256%50%
66 SLV iShares Silver Trust 64%34 to 87+11.8−30.152%51%
67 INDA iShares MSCI India ETF 64%33 to 86+3.9−40.359%53%
68 BND Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares 64%33 to 86+2.5−16.858%52%
69 BIZD VanEck BDC Income ETF 63%33 to 86+5.5−48.363%53%
70 AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF 63%32 to 86+2.4−16.757%52%
71 GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF 63%32 to 86+44.6−88.753%50%
72 EWZ iShares MSCI Brazil ETF 62%32 to 85+6.4−50.452%52%
73 FAS Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares 62%32 to 85+12.6−74.561%54%
74 VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares 62%32 to 85+4.6−31.161%53%
75 XBI State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF 60%30 to 84+9.0−53.755%52%
76 DBC Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund 60%30 to 84+5.1−33.459%54%
77 USO United States Oil Fund, LP 59%30 to 84+5.9−83.957%53%
78 KRE State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF 59%29 to 83+8.6−43.454%50%
79 DBA Invesco DB Agriculture Fund 58%28 to 83+5.2−20.256%49%
80 EWY iShares MSCI South Korea ETF 57%28 to 82+5.4−40.056%51%
81 ERX Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares 54%26 to 80+6.6−97.354%52%
82 XOP State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF 53%25 to 80+2.9−74.353%52%
83 IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF 53%25 to 79+0.8−18.253%50%
84 TNA Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares 51%23 to 78+1.3−81.456%53%
85 FXI iShares China Large-Cap ETF 49%22 to 77−0.5−48.251%49%
86 LABU Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares 47%20 to 75−9.9−94.351%52%
87 TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 44%19 to 73−1.7−36.248%51%
88 NUGT Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares 43%18 to 73−10.7−73.950%50%
89 TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares 30%10 to 62−15.8−77.645%50%
90 UNG United States Natural Gas Fund, LP 27%9 to 60−22.3−80.444%49%

Nov 7, 2016 to Nov 6, 2026. Every session in the window as a start, held 252 sessions, dividend-adjusted closes. Windows overlap, so the range is a 95% interval on the nine independent years the window holds; every figure in this table is muted for that reason and the ranking is coarse. A muted figure rests on fewer than 30 independent windows. Yahoo Finance daily closes; the method page has every definition.

Not yet ten years: 10 funds listed, not ranked

FundNameListedYears of history
XLC State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF Jun 19, 2018 8.4
JEPI JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF May 21, 2020 6.5
JEPQ JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF May 4, 2022 4.5
DIVO Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income ETF Dec 15, 2016 9.9
SPYI Neos S&P 500(R) High Income ETF Aug 30, 2022 4.2
QQQI NEOS NASDAQ-100(R) High Income ETF Jan 30, 2024 2.8
GPIX Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Premium Income ETF Oct 27, 2023 3.0
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF Jan 11, 2024 2.8
FBTC Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund Jan 11, 2024 2.8
ETHA iShares Ethereum Trust ETF Jul 23, 2024 2.3

Each fund's own page carries the same statistics over its own span.

Questions

Why the last ten years?

Because a ranking has to compare the same dates: SPY has traded since 1993 and the youngest funds since 2025, so a figure over each fund's whole life would compare nothing. Ten years holds two large falls (2020, 2022) and leaves 10 funds too young to rank, listed below the table with their own span.

What was measured?

Every session in the window as a start, held 252 sessions, dividend-adjusted closes. Windows overlap, so the range is a 95% interval on the nine independent years the window holds; every figure in this table is muted for that reason and the ranking is coarse.

When does this page update?

After every US market close, once the day's official close is final; the dateline at the top names the last close it reflects.

Data through the November 6, 2026 close. Rankings of the past, not advice. The other lists: Best-performing · Fell least · Fell most · Whipsaw least · Whipsaw most · 200-day mattered most · 200-day rule · 100-day rule · 50-day rule.