The odds · The rules

The 200-day moving average rule on 100 ETFs: what it made, ranked over the last ten years

GBTC (52.9% a year on the rule, 50.9% held), TQQQ (36.4% a year on the rule, 36.2% held) and TECL (31.7% a year on the rule, 40.9% held) lead the 90 funds with ten years of history. The rule beat holding on 10 of 90, cut the worst fall on 83, and beat its own exposure control on 20.

Nov 7, 2016 to Nov 6, 2026, the same ten years for every fund. In the fund when its close is above its 200-day average, out when below, a change taking effect at the next close; returns on dividend-adjusted closes, a day out earns nothing, no trading cost (at 5 basis points a side the raw rule's crosses cost under 0.1% a year). The exposure control is a fixed share of the fund equal to the rule's time in it, rebalanced daily, so timing is what remains.

The top ten

#	Fund	Name	Rule, a year	Holding, a year	Gap, points a year	Worst fall, rule	Worst fall, held	Time in the fund	After the exposure control
1	GBTC	Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF	52.9%	50.9%	+2.0	−80%	−90%	63%	+13.3
2	TQQQ	ProShares UltraPro QQQ	36.4%	36.2%	+0.2	−50%	−82%	78%	+4.0
3	TECL	Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares	31.7%	40.9%	−9.2	−58%	−78%	77%	−5.4
4	QLD	ProShares Ultra QQQ	29.5%	30.7%	−1.2	−47%	−64%	81%	+3.3
5	SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	26.4%	31.0%	−4.5	−32%	−45%	83%	+0.2
6	SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	22.0%	28.3%	−6.3	−36%	−46%	80%	−1.3
7	SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	21.9%	32.3%	−10.4	−77%	−90%	68%	−15.0
8	UPRO	ProShares UltraPro S&P500	18.7%	27.9%	−9.2	−53%	−77%	76%	−5.2
9	XLK	State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF	18.0%	22.7%	−4.7	−25%	−34%	84%	−1.3
10	QQQ	Invesco QQQ Trust	17.1%	19.7%	−2.6	−22%	−35%	84%	+0.5

The ten where the 200-day rule beat holding by most

#	Fund	Name	Rule, a year	Holding, a year	Gap, points a year	Worst fall, rule	Worst fall, held	Time in the fund	After the exposure control
87	TMF	Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares	−2.0%	−16.9%	+14.9	−61%	−94%	33%	+1.9
90	UNG	United States Natural Gas Fund, LP	−8.1%	−22.6%	+14.6	−69%	−94%	24%	−4.7
85	LABU	Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares	−0.6%	−9.2%	+8.6	−80%	−99%	49%	−7.6
84	ERX	Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares	−0.6%	−8.9%	+8.3	−80%	−99%	52%	−2.4
88	NUGT	Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares	−2.5%	−5.4%	+3.0	−83%	−92%	39%	−9.8
36	XOP	State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF	6.7%	4.0%	+2.7	−60%	−83%	54%	+2.4
13	EWY	iShares MSCI South Korea ETF	13.8%	11.5%	+2.3	−34%	−50%	58%	+6.1
1	GBTC	Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF	52.9%	50.9%	+2.0	−80%	−90%	63%	+13.3
86	TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	−1.3%	−1.8%	+0.5	−36%	−48%	37%	−0.9
2	TQQQ	ProShares UltraPro QQQ	36.4%	36.2%	+0.2	−50%	−82%	78%	+4.0

The # is each fund's place in the main ranking below. Most of these are funds that fell hard and the rule stepped aside from; the gap column says how much that was worth.

All 90 funds with ten years of history

#	Fund	Name	Rule, a year	Holding, a year	Gap, points a year	$1,000 on the rule	$1,000 held	Worst fall, rule	Worst fall, held	Time in the fund	After the exposure control	Crosses a year
1	GBTC	Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF	52.9%	50.9%	+2.0	$69,572	$61,008	−80%	−90%	63%	+13.3	6.6
2	TQQQ	ProShares UltraPro QQQ	36.4%	36.2%	+0.2	$22,334	$21,947	−50%	−82%	78%	+4.0	4.7
3	TECL	Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares	31.7%	40.9%	−9.2	$15,655	$30,824	−58%	−78%	77%	−5.4	5.3
4	QLD	ProShares Ultra QQQ	29.5%	30.7%	−1.2	$13,290	$14,518	−47%	−64%	81%	+3.3	4.5
5	SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	26.4%	31.0%	−4.5	$10,437	$14,850	−32%	−45%	83%	+0.2	5.7
6	SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	22.0%	28.3%	−6.3	$7,307	$12,072	−36%	−46%	80%	−1.3	6.1
7	SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	21.9%	32.3%	−10.4	$7,218	$16,405	−77%	−90%	68%	−15.0	9.1
8	UPRO	ProShares UltraPro S&P500	18.7%	27.9%	−9.2	$5,536	$11,676	−53%	−77%	76%	−5.2	6.6
9	XLK	State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF	18.0%	22.7%	−4.7	$5,236	$7,735	−25%	−34%	84%	−1.3	4.1
10	QQQ	Invesco QQQ Trust	17.1%	19.7%	−2.6	$4,836	$6,034	−22%	−35%	84%	+0.5	3.5
11	SPXL	Direxion Daily S&P500 Bull 3X Shares	16.7%	28.0%	−11.3	$4,682	$11,820	−58%	−77%	76%	−7.2	7.6
12	FAS	Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares	15.9%	21.2%	−5.3	$4,371	$6,854	−54%	−86%	67%	−2.8	7.8
13	EWY	iShares MSCI South Korea ETF	13.8%	11.5%	+2.3	$3,644	$2,968	−34%	−50%	58%	+6.1	7.7
14	SSO	ProShares Ultra S&P500	13.3%	22.9%	−9.6	$3,489	$7,845	−43%	−59%	80%	−5.8	6.7
15	IGV	iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF	13.0%	16.1%	−3.1	$3,388	$4,430	−25%	−46%	78%	0	4.8
16	CIBR	First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF	12.8%	17.2%	−4.4	$3,324	$4,891	−24%	−34%	80%	−1.3	5.6
17	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	11.2%	14.3%	−3.1	$2,891	$3,818	−19%	−34%	82%	−0.7	5.1
18	ITA	iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF	10.5%	13.4%	−2.9	$2,720	$3,509	−26%	−51%	79%	−0.4	7.3
19	EWT	iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF	10.4%	16.8%	−6.4	$2,679	$4,711	−27%	−39%	70%	−1.6	8.5
20	VTI	Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF	10.2%	14.6%	−4.4	$2,633	$3,888	−19%	−35%	82%	−1.9	5.8
21	MTUM	iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF	10.0%	14.2%	−4.3	$2,584	$3,784	−33%	−34%	79%	−1.6	9.0
22	SPY	State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	9.9%	15.0%	−5.1	$2,577	$4,039	−21%	−34%	83%	−2.6	5.8
23	XLF	State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF	9.5%	13.2%	−3.6	$2,482	$3,438	−23%	−43%	71%	−0.2	7.8
24	ACWI	iShares MSCI ACWI ETF	9.3%	12.2%	−2.9	$2,442	$3,167	−21%	−34%	81%	−0.6	6.5
25	GLD	SPDR Gold Shares	8.9%	11.8%	−2.9	$2,352	$3,050	−29%	−28%	70%	+0.5	8.1
26	ARKK	ARK Innovation ETF	8.9%	15.2%	−6.4	$2,341	$4,127	−61%	−81%	65%	−2.8	10.8
27	VIG	Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares	8.8%	13.5%	−4.7	$2,328	$3,549	−20%	−32%	84%	−2.6	7.5
28	VLUE	iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF	8.8%	13.8%	−5.0	$2,327	$3,634	−24%	−39%	71%	−1.2	10.0
29	ITB	iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF	8.7%	14.9%	−6.2	$2,307	$4,011	−45%	−52%	66%	−2.0	8.1
30	XLY	State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF	8.4%	12.8%	−4.4	$2,236	$3,319	−23%	−40%	76%	−1.7	7.3
31	XLI	State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF	8.1%	12.8%	−4.7	$2,183	$3,330	−20%	−42%	79%	−2.2	7.3
32	DIA	State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust	7.9%	13.0%	−5.2	$2,129	$3,402	−17%	−37%	82%	−3.0	7.4
33	UDOW	ProShares UltraPro Dow30	7.7%	22.2%	−14.5	$2,096	$7,395	−65%	−80%	74%	−11.5	10.3
34	RSP	Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF	7.6%	12.1%	−4.5	$2,085	$3,134	−24%	−39%	80%	−2.3	8.2
35	VXUS	Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares	6.9%	8.9%	−2.0	$1,945	$2,348	−19%	−36%	70%	+0.4	6.9
36	XOP	State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF	6.7%	4.0%	+2.7	$1,908	$1,482	−60%	−83%	54%	+2.4	8.4
37	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF	6.7%	10.4%	−3.7	$1,907	$2,685	−26%	−44%	67%	−0.8	8.4
38	SLV	iShares Silver Trust	6.6%	10.5%	−3.8	$1,902	$2,711	−45%	−58%	56%	−0.6	9.9
39	SCHD	Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF	6.6%	13.5%	−6.9	$1,890	$3,542	−24%	−33%	76%	−3.7	10.2
40	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares	6.5%	9.6%	−3.1	$1,876	$2,509	−25%	−36%	70%	−0.5	8.2
41	IWM	iShares Russell 2000 ETF	6.4%	10.1%	−3.7	$1,852	$2,616	−27%	−41%	69%	−1.1	7.7
42	XBI	State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF	6.2%	10.4%	−4.2	$1,832	$2,692	−56%	−64%	63%	−1.5	8.3
43	DBC	Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund	6.2%	9.7%	−3.5	$1,822	$2,528	−45%	−42%	57%	+0.4	10.2
44	EWG	iShares MSCI Germany ETF	5.8%	7.5%	−1.7	$1,761	$2,065	−23%	−47%	67%	+0.3	8.4
45	INDA	iShares MSCI India ETF	5.7%	7.0%	−1.4	$1,735	$1,971	−24%	−45%	58%	+1.1	7.8
46	XRT	State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF	5.6%	9.5%	−3.9	$1,730	$2,481	−31%	−47%	58%	−0.7	8.9
47	KRE	State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF	5.6%	7.7%	−2.1	$1,728	$2,097	−29%	−55%	61%	−0.3	8.8
48	VTV	Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF	5.5%	12.7%	−7.2	$1,711	$3,310	−31%	−37%	81%	−4.8	10.2
49	NOBL	ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF	5.5%	11.0%	−5.5	$1,708	$2,830	−19%	−35%	79%	−3.3	8.7
50	XLE	State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF	5.4%	10.3%	−4.9	$1,697	$2,672	−42%	−67%	58%	−1.6	11.8
51	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	5.2%	10.6%	−5.4	$1,664	$2,741	−26%	−42%	74%	−2.9	9.1
52	CPER	United States Copper Index Fund, LP	5.0%	9.5%	−4.5	$1,628	$2,485	−42%	−38%	66%	−1.9	8.7
53	USO	United States Oil Fund, LP	4.9%	6.2%	−1.3	$1,612	$1,826	−59%	−87%	57%	−0.7	10.3
54	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	4.9%	8.0%	−3.1	$1,607	$2,159	−20%	−33%	71%	−1.1	9.9
55	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	4.4%	9.1%	−4.7	$1,543	$2,385	−24%	−34%	71%	−2.3	9.6
56	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF	4.4%	7.1%	−2.7	$1,541	$1,984	−30%	−40%	64%	−0.6	9.7
57	USMV	iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF	4.3%	10.6%	−6.3	$1,523	$2,737	−26%	−33%	83%	−4.5	8.9
58	EWU	iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF	4.3%	8.7%	−4.5	$1,522	$2,310	−19%	−43%	68%	−1.9	8.7
59	MDY	State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust	4.3%	10.5%	−6.2	$1,520	$2,707	−29%	−42%	75%	−4.0	9.5
60	TNA	Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares	4.2%	5.1%	−0.9	$1,512	$1,646	−68%	−88%	58%	−5.0	9.9
61	BIZD	VanEck BDC Income ETF	4.0%	7.7%	−3.7	$1,478	$2,093	−16%	−55%	48%	−0.3	10.7
62	VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares	3.9%	6.8%	−2.9	$1,466	$1,928	−25%	−36%	65%	−0.9	10.1
63	XYLD	Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF	3.8%	8.3%	−4.5	$1,457	$2,226	−21%	−33%	60%	−1.4	8.2
64	XLV	State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF	3.8%	12.4%	−8.5	$1,453	$3,204	−29%	−28%	73%	−5.4	11.9
65	DBA	Invesco DB Agriculture Fund	3.5%	4.1%	−0.6	$1,405	$1,490	−18%	−35%	51%	+1.2	7.8
66	XLB	State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF	3.2%	10.4%	−7.2	$1,368	$2,692	−31%	−37%	71%	−4.6	10.6
67	HYG	iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF	3.0%	4.3%	−1.3	$1,342	$1,516	−6%	−22%	58%	+0.5	7.9
68	JNK	State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF	2.9%	4.3%	−1.3	$1,336	$1,518	−7%	−23%	55%	+0.5	8.5
69	XLU	State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF	2.4%	9.3%	−6.9	$1,266	$2,423	−31%	−36%	67%	−4.2	9.8
70	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	2.2%	2.6%	−0.4	$1,241	$1,296	−8%	−34%	46%	+0.8	6.8
71	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	1.6%	2.6%	−1.0	$1,168	$1,287	−12%	−29%	54%	+0.1	8.5
72	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	1.5%	1.8%	−0.3	$1,155	$1,191	−46%	−61%	51%	−0.4	7.9
73	SHY	iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF	1.2%	1.7%	−0.5	$1,128	$1,183	−1%	−6%	42%	+0.5	7.7
74	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	1.2%	2.1%	−0.9	$1,125	$1,234	−13%	−25%	50%	0	8.7
75	XLRE	State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF	0.8%	7.4%	−6.6	$1,081	$2,037	−25%	−39%	59%	−4.0	12.9
76	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond ETF	0.6%	2.2%	−1.6	$1,061	$1,246	−8%	−15%	52%	−0.6	12.3
77	QYLD	Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF	0.5%	9.2%	−8.7	$1,047	$2,403	−30%	−25%	60%	−5.3	11.6
78	XLP	State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF	0.4%	8.4%	−8.0	$1,040	$2,246	−27%	−25%	68%	−5.6	12.3
79	GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	0.3%	14.9%	−14.6	$1,033	$4,012	−61%	−50%	55%	−9.6	10.9
80	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	0.1%	0.5%	−0.4	$1,013	$1,056	−20%	−24%	41%	−0.1	10.4
81	AGG	iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF	0.0%	1.5%	−1.4	$1,005	$1,155	−15%	−18%	45%	−0.6	11.5
82	BND	Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares	0.0%	1.5%	−1.5	$1,004	$1,162	−16%	−19%	46%	−0.7	10.8
83	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares	−0.2%	5.9%	−6.1	$983	$1,778	−27%	−42%	55%	−3.9	12.3
84	ERX	Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares	−0.6%	−8.9%	+8.3	$945	$394	−80%	−99%	52%	−2.4	11.8
85	LABU	Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares	−0.6%	−9.2%	+8.6	$938	$379	−80%	−99%	49%	−7.6	7.5
86	TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	−1.3%	−1.8%	+0.5	$874	$834	−36%	−48%	37%	−0.9	10.4
87	TMF	Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares	−2.0%	−16.9%	+14.9	$817	$157	−61%	−94%	33%	+1.9	8.0
88	NUGT	Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares	−2.5%	−5.4%	+3.0	$780	$574	−83%	−92%	39%	−9.8	7.6
89	EWZ	iShares MSCI Brazil ETF	−5.1%	3.7%	−8.8	$594	$1,436	−55%	−57%	57%	−8.7	13.7
90	UNG	United States Natural Gas Fund, LP	−8.1%	−22.6%	+14.6	$432	$77	−69%	−94%	24%	−4.7	8.2

Nov 7, 2016 to Nov 6, 2026. In the fund when its close is above its 200-day average, out when below, a change taking effect at the next close; returns on dividend-adjusted closes, a day out earns nothing, no trading cost (at 5 basis points a side the raw rule's crosses cost under 0.1% a year). The exposure control is a fixed share of the fund equal to the rule's time in it, rebalanced daily, so timing is what remains. A muted figure rests on fewer than 30 independent windows. Yahoo Finance daily closes; the method page has every definition, and explains the exposure control with a worked example.

Not yet ten years: 10 funds listed, not ranked

Fund	Name	Listed	Years of history
XLC	State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF	Jun 19, 2018	8.4
JEPI	JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF	May 21, 2020	6.5
JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	May 4, 2022	4.5
DIVO	Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income ETF	Dec 15, 2016	9.9
SPYI	Neos S&P 500(R) High Income ETF	Aug 30, 2022	4.2
QQQI	NEOS NASDAQ-100(R) High Income ETF	Jan 30, 2024	2.8
GPIX	Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Premium Income ETF	Oct 27, 2023	3.0
IBIT	iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF	Jan 11, 2024	2.8
FBTC	Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund	Jan 11, 2024	2.8
ETHA	iShares Ethereum Trust ETF	Jul 23, 2024	2.3

Each fund's own page carries the same statistics over its own span.

Questions

Why the last ten years?

Because a ranking has to compare the same dates: SPY has traded since 1993 and the youngest funds since 2025, so a figure over each fund's whole life would compare nothing. Ten years holds two large falls (2020, 2022) and leaves 10 funds too young to rank, listed below the table with their own span.

What was measured?

In the fund when its close is above its 200-day average, out when below, a change taking effect at the next close; returns on dividend-adjusted closes, a day out earns nothing, no trading cost (at 5 basis points a side the raw rule's crosses cost under 0.1% a year). The exposure control is a fixed share of the fund equal to the rule's time in it, rebalanced daily, so timing is what remains. The method page explains the exposure control with a worked example.

When does this page update?

After every US market close, once the day's official close is final; the dateline at the top names the last close it reflects.

Data through the November 6, 2026 close. Rankings of the past, not advice. The other lists: Best-performing · Fell least · Fell most · Higher a year later · Whipsaw least · Whipsaw most · 200-day mattered most · 100-day rule · 50-day rule.